The potential arrival of a spot ETF on Solana (SOL) in the US could have a massive impact on the price of SOL, according to liquidity provider GSR Markets. In a report published on June 27, the company estimated that the launch of such an ETF could boost the price of SOL by up to 9 times its current value.
GSR's "sky blue" scenario
GSR, which holds a long position in SOL, based its estimate on the assumption that future spot ETFs on Solana would attract 14% of the flows observed since the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs. In this "sky-blue scenario", the price of SOL would rise from the current $149 to over $1,320, while Solana's market capitalization would reach $614 billion. These forecasts are based on growing ETF adoption and increased interest from institutional investors.
More cautious scenarios
However, GSR also considered more conservative scenarios. In a "bearish scenario", with Solana ETFs attracting just 2% of Bitcoin ETF flows, the SOL price would rise "only" by 1.4 times. In a "base scenario", with 5% of flows, the price would rise by 3.4 times. On the other hand, in an "optimistic scenario", a capture of 10% of flows could lead to a 6-fold increase in the SOL price.
Obstacles to approval of a Solana ETF
Despite this optimism, analysts such as Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas believe that a change of US president and SEC chairman would be required for a Solana ETF to be seriously considered. Indeed, the SEC has already labeled the SOL token a "security", which greatly complicates its approval. In addition, regulatory uncertainty and previous rejections of similar products increase the challenges for approval of a Solana ETF.
