El Salvador celebrated the fourth anniversary of its Bitcoin law by making a symbolic purchase of 21 BTC, despite analysts’ warnings about a historically unfavorable date for the cryptocurrency and restrictions imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Key Points to Remember
- El Salvador acquired 21 BTC (approximately $2.3 million) to mark Bitcoin Day.
- The transaction symbolizes the connection to the 21 million Bitcoin supply cap.
- The country’s sovereign reserves now total around 6,313 BTC.
- The IMF loan agreement signed in 2024 prohibited new public purchases.
- September 8 is historically considered unfavorable for Bitcoin (-72% of cases).
- MicroStrategy, via Michael Saylor, hinted at potential new BTC acquisitions.
A Symbolic Gesture for Bitcoin Day
On September 7, President Nayib Bukele announced on X that the Salvadoran state had purchased 21 BTC, worth nearly $2.3 million at the current price (about $111,000 per unit). The number 21 was chosen in reference to the total number of bitcoins that will ever exist: 21 million.
Since adopting the law in 2021, El Salvador became the first nation to recognize Bitcoin as legal tender. With this new purchase, its sovereign reserves now reach approximately 6,313 BTC, valued at roughly $702 million.
A Tense Relationship with the IMF
The initiative is not without controversy. In December 2024, El Salvador signed a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the IMF, which required suspending Bitcoin purchases with public funds and relaxing the obligation for merchants to accept it.
Bukele’s announcement, however, suggests a discreet continuation of the accumulation strategy. To mitigate risks, the country’s holdings are now spread across multiple wallets, each capped at 500 BTC, to protect against potential technological threats, such as quantum computing.
Mixed Signals from the Market
While the celebration made headlines, analysts remind that September 8 is statistically unfavorable for Bitcoin. According to Timothy Peterson, a valuation model expert, this date results in losses 72% of the time, with an average drop of -1.3%. When negative, the entire month typically ends in decline 90% of the time.
Meanwhile, the market faces growing pressure: more than $10 billion in short positions could be liquidated if Bitcoin exceeds $117,000. This reflects the contrast between the long-term bullish strategy and short-term volatility.
MicroStrategy Strengthens Its Institutional Role
The event coincides with signals from Wall Street. Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, hinted that his company might continue its acquisitions. Already the largest corporate holder worldwide with over 636,000 BTC, MicroStrategy is viewed as a Bitcoin proxy for institutional investors.
This debt-financed strategy divides analysts: some see it as visionary, while others consider it excessively risky.
A Laboratory Under Observation
Four years after legalizing Bitcoin, El Salvador continues experimenting with national cryptocurrency integration. Educational programs are being rolled out in schools, and an international conference, BITCOIN HISTÓRICO, is planned in San Salvador in November.
However, on the ground, adoption remains limited: the public app Chivo, designed to facilitate BTC payments, is underused, with residents favoring the dollar.
The country remains a unique laboratory: a symbol of monetary independence for supporters and a risky bet for critics. With this symbolic purchase, El Salvador sends a clear message: its commitment to Bitcoin remains unwavering.
