Against the backdrop of a bull market, marked by significant inflows into ETFs and low miner indebtedness, Bernstein anticipates favorable momentum for Bitcoin, whose next halving is scheduled for April 20. This event will reduce miners' rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, potentially calling into question the viability of certain mining operations.
Halving with moderate impact
Unlike previous cycles, when the effect of halving was more pronounced, Bernstein estimates that this time the impact will be more moderate. The expected drop in the network's halving rate would be around 7%, compared with the 15% to 20% observed previously. This smaller reduction can be explained by favorable market conditions and a less indebted mining sector.
Efficient miners in a strong position
Efficient miners in a strong positionThe most efficient mining companies, such as CleanSpark and Riot Platforms, should come out on top, taking advantage of their low operating costs to increase their post-halving market share. Bernstein also identifies Marathon Digital as a key player, notably thanks to its transition to a self-mining model and its solid liquidity position.
Investing in miners: a strategic choice
According to Bernstein, shares in mining companies still represent the best equity proxy for indirect investment in Bitcoin. The three largest miners listed in the US control around 10% of the total network hashrate, with plans to increase their capacity in 2024/2025.
Buying opportunity on the downturn
In the face of Bitcoin's recent correction, which saw its price plummet from over $73,000 to under $63,000, Bernstein sees a buying opportunity. Analysts expect the market to consolidate before halving, followed by a resumption of the uptrend.
In conclusion, despite an a priori less dramatic halving environment for miners, the future looks bright for Bitcoin, with rising price prospects and a mining sector that continues to adapt and innovate. Wise investors will be keeping a close eye on these developments, ready to seize opportunities in this dynamic market.
