By Bitget Research
Current price movements
Bitcoin is in a robust upward momentum since months, showing constant price elevation with periodic corrections and recoveries. After the launch of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024, Bitcoin soared to US$48,000 – levels last seen in January 2022, receded to below US$40K, then smashed US$50K in February 2024. On March 5th, Bitcoin broke the $69,000 threshold, achieving a new all-time high after a gap of 846 days. Another notable event was when it passed the $70,000 benchmark, reaching $73,750 on March 14th, setting a new record.
The market excitement extends to the derivatives domain, with a notable rise in optimistic bets in the options market. Data shows that the open interest in call options with strike prices of $80,000 and $100,000 has increased by about 12% each after Bitcoin broke through $70,000, signaling sustained bullish sentiment.
In the last week, Bitcoin has experienced a slight drop, currently moving in the range between $63,000 and $73,000. Bitcoin funding rates have also declined, reducing the risk of further liquidations, which could be the sign of a more sustainable trend.
BTC forecast for April
The forecast range for BTC in April is expected to move within $62,000 to $90,000, mainly due to two main reasons: the BTC Spot ETFs and the upcoming halving event.
The BTC Spot ETF continues to play a role in fund inflows. Since the approval of the BTC spot ETF by the SEC, Wall Street has accumulated purchases of 200,000 BTC, driving the price of BTC up to $73,000. As more institutional investors enter the Bitcoin market, we will see more capital, stability and market recognition, thereby driving long-term growth in Bitcoin prices. Institutional investors typically adopt long-term investment strategies, which increases long-term holding of Bitcoin, further reducing supply. This may have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices. In addition, institutional investors bring in a significant influx of capital into the market, increasing liquidity in the Bitcoin market, which will reduce price volatility and further attract more investors to enter the market, driving prices higher.
The 4th bitcoin halving event is expected to take place in April this year. Historically, Bitcoin’s halving events have often led to significant price increases. When paired with ongoing demand, the anticipated supply shrinkage typically propels prices upward, while speculative activities in the market can further fuel FOMO, continuously boosting Bitcoin prices. Indeed, after the halving, BTC’s daily issuance will be reduced to ~450, with an annual increase of only around 160,000, equivalent to just one month’s buying volume for Wall Street. With Wall Street’s continued purchases and the effect of the halving market, the next BTC bull market will come early, and April is an important month determining the trend of the next few months.
