Trading volumes on predictive betting platform Polymarket reached a record $116 million in July, driven mainly by bets on the 2024 US elections and Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House.
This surge in activity illustrates investors’ growing interest in political prediction markets, which offer an alternative to traditional polls for anticipating election results. However, these platforms also raise questions about the regulation of political betting.
Record volumes at Polymarket in July
According to the company’s data, Polymarket recorded a record monthly volume of $116 million in July 2024. This performance represents an increase of over 50% on the previous month.
Betting on the 2024 US presidential elections was the main driver of this growth. Investors placed massive bets on a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, fuelling strong activity on these prediction markets.
The appeal of political prediction markets
Political prediction marketplaces like Polymarket offer an alternative to traditional polls for anticipating election results. By allowing users to bet on the outcome of elections, they provide a measure of “market sentiment” that can prove more reliable than opinion polls.
This appeal has grown stronger in recent years, with the rise of predictive betting platforms using blockchain. These markets are seen as more transparent and less prone to manipulation than traditional polls.
The challenges of regulating political betting
However, the rise of political prediction markets also raises questions about their regulation. Some fear that these platforms could become vehicles for misinformation and electoral manipulation, by encouraging betting on disputed results.
Efforts are underway to regulate these activities, notably in the USA, where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently published guidelines on political prediction markets. But the regulatory challenges remain significant in striking the right balance between freedom of expression and electoral integrity.
