While Bitcoin seemed poised to reach new highs in 2025, economist and analyst Lyn Alden is revising her forecasts downward. The cause: a combination of weighty macroeconomic factors, including tightening global liquidity and rising trade tensions between major powers.
An unfavorable macroeconomic context
- Tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties: The introduction of new trade barriers, particularly by the United States, is raising fears of a global economic slowdown. These measures risk reducing investment flows and leading to greater risk aversion.
- Tightening liquidity conditions: Lyn Alden points out that current monetary policy, less accommodative than in the past, is limiting capital injections into high-risk markets, including cryptocurrencies.
More Cautious Expectations
- Downward Forecast: Alden, known for its rigorous macro-financial analyses, has lowered its estimate of Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2025. While it does not provide a specific figure, it states that expectations of a six-figure BTC price should be tempered, at least temporarily.
- A Still Uncertain Market: Despite some structural optimism, short-term macroeconomic signals call for caution, particularly given the US Federal Reserve’s continued vigilance over inflation.
A Still Open Path, but Littered with Pitfalls
What this implies:
- The crypto market is entering a phase where macro factors are taking precedence over internal dynamics.
- Investors must factor risks related to global liquidity and trade policies into their price scenarios.
Persistent Risks:
- An escalation of tensions between the United States and China could seriously affect global markets.
- A prolonged tightening of monetary conditions could slow institutional investment in cryptoassets.
Conclusion
Lyn Alden’s price forecast revision highlights a truth often overlooked in crypto enthusiasm: Bitcoin, despite its uniqueness, remains subject to the forces of the global market. In a climate of dwindling liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, even the most resilient asset must contend with a more nuanced reality. 2025 could still hold surprises, but caution is now in order.
